Chris Forte’s “Thoughts to Start the Day” – GDLLF, INTZ

Posted on June 9, 2022 by Scott Shuda

are You Locked In or Out?

Moody’s Analystics Mark Zandi had a lot to say about housing and inflation in a direct and simple way. “There will be no crash like the 2008 bubble. First pf all there’s a severe shortage of homes for sale. Vacancies for sale or rent are at record lows, the opposite of 2008 when vacancies were a record high. Secondly mortgage lending has been pristine so no defaults and foreclosures. The market will weaken but nothing like 2008.

“But there is a comeuppance. Home sales and demand will be hit hard by interest rates. First time home buyers may get locked out. Present home owners are locked in. Who’s going to want to sell and lose their low mortgage rate? Home prices will go flat nationwide. Supply will hold up better because there’s a shortage and there’s a record number of new homes in the pipeline because of supply chain issues that will get ironed out. Homebuilders will navigate this well, better than other aspects of housing.

Inflation? “It has peaked more or less. The number we get on Friday will be ugly due to gasoline prices and the EU sanctions, but things will improve if the pandemic isn’t a continuing issue and supply chain improves. The worst of the fallout from the Russian invasion is at hand, right now, at around $120 a barrel. I expect inflation to be moderated significantly by this time next year.”


Why waste your time at the movies this weekend watching Top Gun or Jurassic World when you can watch, TSX:GEO Geodrill I Stock analysis I Q1 2022 Update on YouTube. Kudos to member Stephane Renaud for the presentation. Geodrill is a compelling opportunity and is covered by Breakout Investor Florian Buschek. See the Feed for the link and make your own popcorn.

Surprise – there’s no surprises! Perpetually bullish Tom Lee of Fundstrat points out that worldwide factors are helping the Fed. “A lot of goods are going to be discounted…cars, apparel, furniture, everything Target and Walmart have. Housing is cooling dramatically which will lead to some job loss and wealth effects. This means investors don’t have to worry about hawkish surprises.

Bullish themes? Lee says, “The labor market is creating wage pressure which is solved by automation, so that’s good for tech. War with Russia will end and commodity prices will fall. Tech has been beaten up so there could be upside surprises. “Oil and gas? Half of inflation is war related. Once it concludes oil and food will dis-inflate. Goods are decelerating, services are under pressure…so the market could rally.”


*Aaron Warwick shares, “INTZ Due Diligence – Spoke With Reseller Partner” and it starts with this sentence, “Wow, just had an amazing call with InnerCore Technologies…”

*Grid for trouble: Power demand in Texas broke a June record Monday and Tuesday as Texas hit triple digit temps. Infrastructure and grid companies could be in play. Check out PPSI, NVEE, WLDN, and GVP in CF Room.

*Shipping stocks capsized as J.P. Morgan analysts said they anticipate a slowdown in freight traffic. ZIM lost 15%.

*Mortgage demand falls to lowest level in 22 years as interest rates rise. Demand is half of what it was a year ago when mortgage rates were 3.15%. It’s now 5.4%.

*Demand here for gasoline keeps climbing despite record high pump prices

*Oil prices are “nowhere near” their peak, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister said, as Chinese demand has not returned to normal, and the impending rebound threatens to strain a global market already pinched by tight supplies.- Seeking Alpha

*”If something is really great no one cares. If something is bad they sell the WHOLE sector.” – Jim Cramer

*BioCryst (BCRX) collaborates to sell Orladeyo in Latin America. Earlier this week the company received approval in Switzerland and Canada.

“Money doesn’t make you happy. I now have $50 million but I was just as happy when I had $48 million.” – ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER

Good luck to all – Chris

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