interest rates

The Secular Decline in Long-Term Yields around FOMC Meetings

is a fascinating paper from March 2020 from Sebastian Hillenbrand. Some amazing figures and results follow. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell by almost 8% between 1980 and 2017. I document thatthe entire decline in long-term interest rates was realized in a 3-day window around FOMCmeetings. I find a similar pattern for U.S. equities: the same […]

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…is a new paper by Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi, a phenomenal paper. We propose a theory of indebted demand, capturing the idea that large debt burdens lower aggregate demand, and thus the natural rate of interest. At the core of the theory is the simple yet under-appreciated observation that borrowers and savers […]

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